Wednesday, March 2, 2011

The Jobless Effect: Is the Real Unemployment Rate 16.5%, 22% or…?, Pallavi Gogoi, July 16, 2010

Jobless Workers Who Disappear

Another major source of undercounting is the unemployed who’ve given up looking for jobs. The Bureau of labor Statistics headline number counts as unemployed only people who have actively looked for a job in the previous four weeks. About 2.6 million people had pursued jobs in the past 12 months but, discouraged by the lack of opportunity, had stopped looking altogether.

“Isn’t it interesting that if you stopped looking for a job, you evaporate as a jobless person and are just not counted,” says Gerald Celente, director of Trends Research Institute in Kingstown, NY. Celente believes this kind of undercounting has suited the government politically. “It’s what government does: downplay disasters and amplify success.”

According to the Pew Research Center, a large number of people are out of jobs for a longer period during this economic downturn. The typical unemployed worker today has been out of work for nearly six months. That’s almost double the post-WWII peak for this measure, which was 12.3 weeks in 1982-83. Indeed if all of the truly unemployed were counted, the rate would be significantly higher, at 16.5% in June 2010.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/careers/what-is-the-real-unemployment-rate/19556146/
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1 comment:

  1. Robert MannalMarch 2, 2011 at 2:48 PM

    Based on some data from other sources, the real un and underemployment rate is 25+%. This counts well qualified people who have taken "survival" jobs, as well as those whose unemployment coverage has run out...and who now qualify as not looking for a job.

    There are three real pockets of concern. (1) Highly qualified people who cannot find a job...think unemployed automobile middle management, age 48-60 living in Detroit, (2) Recent college graduates where entry level jobs have disappeared and (3) Minorities in urban environments. This group shows unemployment between 30-40%. While the three groups have different goals, their potential for social change is great. How their energy is directed is key.

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