Friday, February 4, 2011

Unemployment

The unemployment rate at the height of the Great Depression was 25%; the Great Recession reached 9.8%, and for January 2011 it has dropped to 9.0%. Unemployment for those who earn greater than $150,000 is only 3%, while the poor is impacted at 31%. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer! Factors such as where you live, race, income, and age greatly affect one’s experience with the severity of unemployment.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Bank Bailout Program

But would it have been worse if the Bank Bailout program was not implemented? And at quite a cost to the U. S. taxpayer. There has been a recent announcement that the government is expected to make a $12.3 billion profit on the $45 billion investment in Citigroup (NYSE: C). Treasury's acting assistant secretary for the bailout program said in a statement: "Our investment in Citigroup has produced a significant profit for taxpayers. As we exit our investments ... it's clear that the cost of the TARP program will be a fraction of what many had once feared during the depths of the crisis."

The U.S. government made $13.5 billion selling its stake in General Motors (NYSE: GM), and it'll soon be selling its stake in AIG (NYSE: AIG). Treasury provided a total of $410 billion in disbursements from the TARP fund. With the Citigroup warrant auction, the amount that Treasury has received back in repayments and income on its investments totals $271 billion, Treasury said.

With that said, TARP is still expected to cost taxpayers $28 billion. It's a scary thought that $28 billion is less expensive to taxpayers than we first feared.

The government warned that banks were too big to fail, but then allowed and encouraged banks JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) -- alias J.P. Morgan Chase Bear Stearns Washington Mutual -- and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) -- aka Bank of America Countrywide Merrill Lynch -- to acquire other banks. What about some other absurdities from the financial crisis, like ex-Merrill CEO John Thain, now CEO of CIT Group (NYSE: CIT), using company money to buy a $70,000 desk while his bank was receiving taxpayer support. To be fair, the information is wrong. The desk was only $18,000; the credenza cost $70,000.


Bank Foreclosures

Many banks foreclosed during the Great Depression. Between January 1933 and March 1933 over 50% of the banks or 9,096 banks failed. Between December 2007 to May 2009, only 57 U. S. banks failed, or .6% of the total banks.

On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers Bank filed for bankruptcy. This bankruptcy was the largest in U. S. history. Today banks are still not in a great position to lend.

Global Industrial Production

During the Great Depression industrial production had a massive three-year decline. Today’s global markets experienced an initial shock, then global trade and global production continued, albeit more slow than prior to the Great Recession.

Global stock markets have mounted a sharp recovery; however, the proportionate decline in stock market wealth remains even greater than at the comparable stage of the Great Depression.


Thousands of unemployed Chinese graduates flock to a job fair in Wuhan, central China's Hubei province on March 7, 2009. China vowed to help train one million graduates in the next three years to boost their qualifications, and promised loans to business that hire graduates, as unemployment continues to grow. (STR/AFP/Getty Images)

United States Manufacturing Decline

Both the Great Depression and the Great Recession have been impacted by an immense decline in manufacturing production. Industrial production declined by 19% between Q32008 and 1Q 2009, and then leveled off. During the Great Recession it declined by 12% in the first three quarters and did not recover until 1932.


The Deficit Effect on American Youth

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth

GDP growth is the greatest factor in determining what constitutes a depression versus a recession. I know many feel this economic crisis is our generation’s depression but in economic terms, it is not.

The unofficial definition of a depression is broadly defined as a drop in 10% of the GDP. Between 1929 and 1933 the U.S. GDP dropped more than 30%.

The definition of a recession is when economic growth contracts for two quarters straight, with severity measured in actual decline and visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales. The economy was slowing in 2007, and in early 2008, with severe declines later in 2008 and in early 2009. The 4th quarter of 2008 and the 1st quarter of 2009 were the first successive quarters since the Great Depression that sustained growth below -5.0%.


The definition matters to some. In reality, it is how you and yours are impacted by the economic crisis.