Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Will consumers still consume?

Yes. For some product categories it’s going to come down to price alone because the brand has not given them a reason to pay more money for a product.  



The stark contrast:
Maui’s volcano, Haleakala (House of the Sun) National Park


The reality of the changes in consumer behavior

Consumers are going to be watching how much they spend because they are afraid of loosing their jobs.  It’s more about needs than wants and making purchases that help consumers feel better about themselves.

There is a disconnect between the fortunes of American companies, which are doing quite well, and American workers, most of whom are earning a lower hourly wage now than they did during the recession.

Meanwhile, companies are flush: American firms generated $1.68 trillion in profit in the last quarter of 2010 alone. Many firms are not putting their next factory or R&D center in the U.S. when they could put it in Brazil, China or India. These emerging-market nations are churning out 70 million new middle-class workers and consumers every year. That’s one reason unemployment is high and wages are constrained here at home. This was true well before the recession.

From 2000 to 2007, the U.S. saw its weakest period of job creation since the Great Depression. Eventually taxes in this country are going to have to increase if we want to close the deficit.

The reality of the changes in consumer behavior

Consumer behavior has changed forever because of the recession and brands and companies are going to change the fundamental way in which they do business and how they think of their customers and prospects.  

Only 12.2% of economists surveyed by the Philadelphia Fed believe that the current backsliding will develop into a double-dip recession.  It used to take roughly six months for the U.S. to get back to a normal employment picture after a recession; the McKinsey Global Institute estimates it will take five years this time around.

That lingering unemployment cuts GDP growth by reducing consumer demand, which in turn makes it harder to create jobs. We would need to create 187,000 jobs a month, growing at a rate of 3.3%, to get to a healthy 5% unemployment rate by 2020. At the current rate of growth and job creation, we would maybe get halfway there by that time.